Although bitcoin has been on an upward trajectory, the bear market might persist, according to Fidelity.
A fresh analysis from the asset management firm indicates that while the cryptocurrency is following historical cycle patterns, a market bottom could still materialize in November.
Bitcoin’s upward momentum kicked off in mid-August following the U.S. Treasury Department’s revelation that it plans to more than double its government debt buybacks. Recently, the cryptocurrency traded near $81,639, marking an increase of almost 30% over a 30-day window.
These gains have led some observers to declare an end to the bear market. Last October, the digital asset reached an all-time peak of $126,080.
“Given bitcoin’s recent performance, the bottom could already have occurred in July,” noted Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets.
He added, “It could also drop again to make another new low in November or later,” pointing out that historical bitcoin cycles do not strictly adhere to a four-year timeline and therefore “aren’t reliable for timing the market.”
Throughout the majority of June and July, bitcoin experienced exceptionally low volatility, changing hands below $65,000.
Those conditions shifted in August in the wake of the Treasury Department’s announcement, which subsequently revived the debasement trade.
To anticipate bitcoin’s future direction, Kuiper suggested that market participants closely monitor developments surrounding the crypto Clarity Act. Supporters maintain that the legislation would establish “greater regulatory certainty and support continued innovation in the U.S. digital asset ecosystem,” he stated.
In August, President Donald Trump encouraged legislators to finalize the delayed crypto market structure bill, fueling bitcoin’s advance. Following discussions with prominent figures from the cryptocurrency sector at the White House, the president described the proposed legislation as “very, very powerful.”
The cryptocurrency sector has long advocated for transparent guidelines regarding how regulatory bodies should handle bitcoin, stablecoins, and alternative digital currencies.
A congressional vote on the legislation is scheduled for this month.
FAQ
Is the bitcoin bear market officially over?
Not necessarily. Fidelity warns that although bitcoin is rallying, it could still drop to a new low in November or later.
When did bitcoin start its recent rally?
The upward movement began in mid-August after the U.S. Treasury Department announced plans to more than double its government debt repurchases.
What upcoming legislation are investors watching?
Investors are watching the crypto Clarity Act, a market structure bill facing a congressional vote this month.
